The Seismic Shifts in the Satellite Communications Landscape are Far From Over

The satellite communications market has evolved rapidly over the past four years. As SpaceX’s Starlink has racked up not just hundreds, but even thousands of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites (recently surpassing 10,000 satellites), several mergers have taken place, including Eutelsat/OneWeb and Viasat/Inmarsat in 2023, SES and Intelsat in 2024, and Lynk Global/Omnispace in 2025.

These incumbents have attempted to buff up their capabilities in orbital planes and market segments, both in geographic and operational domains, and seek access to deeper financial pockets. Competition is only likely to increase as Amazon Leo is entering the market, and Blue Origin, the rocket company also funded by Jeff Bezos, announced its own broadband satellite communications operation, TeraWave.

Given these developments, how is the satellite communications sector performing? What does the future hold for the sector?

Satellite IoT

On Earth, there are an estimated 19.47 billion connected IoT devices in operation. A very sizable majority (79 percent) are connected via short range wireless, 12 percent connect via a Low-Power Wireless Access Network (LPWAN) but there is a very small, but rapidly growing, percentage (less than 1 percent) of IoT devices being connected via satellite.

Historically, satellite IoT has been the overwhelming preserve of proprietary communications systems. To give them due credit, many of these systems were pioneers in the air/maritime/land mobile satellite communications sector — Inmarsat, Viasat, and Globalstar. However, as the years count down to the anticipated 6G convergence milestone of 2030, there is growing interest in 3GPP’s narrowband non-terrestrial network (NB-NTN) standard.

In the past six months alone, Viasat has introduced IoT Nano in partnership with Orbcomm; Skylo Technologies and Vodafone IoT have announced a partnership to deliver NB-NTN satellite connectivity to customers in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East; and Iridium has announced the launch of its Iridium NTN Direct service and signed up Syniverse and Deutsche Telekom.

The net result of this market activity has been an upswell of satellite IoT subscriptions. The satellite IoT market in 2025 exceeded ABI Research’s beginning of 2025 year expectations, demonstrating 20.7 percent year-over-year (YoY) growth to reach 13.6 million active connections. The connectivity revenue outlook is challenging and is very much a “numbers game.”

Average revenue per satellite IoT connection (ARPC) ranges from $2.90 per month for personal outdoor tracking to $22.04 per month for smart energy. The overall worldwide monthly average revenue per connection in 2025 was $12.68. As a result of this expanding range of government, enterprises and even consumer use cases, ABI Research anticipates the satellite IoT connections market to surpass 28.6 million connections by 2030, with associated connectivity revenue of $3.1 billion.

On top of that connectivity revenue, there is a range of additional value-added services — device and application platform services, software-as-a-service (SaaS); security services; data and analytics services and professional services—that generate an approximate 15 times increase for software developers, system integrators, and specialist firms.

Satellite Broadband

This sector has historically been dominated by traditional Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) operators such as Viasat and Hughes Network Systems. However, the burgeoning competition from LEO satellite service providers (SSPs) is dramatically shifting the business model. SpaceX’s Starlink leads, but Amazon LEO and Chinese SSPs such as Guo Wang, SpaceSail, and Honghu-3 are posturing, but they have yet to demonstrate they have the launch capabilities (i.e., reliable and frequent reusable rockets) to secure the volume of satellites to outcompete Starlink and Amazon LEO. SSPs such as Starlink leverage vertically-integrated models (manufacture of satellites, launch systems, and satellite constellation), mass equipment production, and deep funding.

Spectrum remains a pressing issue for the satellite broadband segment. The Ka (26.5–40 GHz) and Ku (12–18 GHz) bands do a significant amount of the heavy lifting using very small aperture terminal (VSAT) dishes. However, congestion in these bands is pushing operators toward higher frequencies, including the Q-band (33–50 GHz), V-band (40–75 GHz), and even the newly approved E-band (81–86 GHz).

Land-based fixed broadband (residential and commercial premises) are the largest and fastest-growing segments. Maritime and aviation connectivity continue to be strong drivers of revenue, driven by demand for in-flight and onboard connectivity services. There is still untapped potential in the land mobile segment as industries such as mining, forestry, and disaster relief have had vehicles operate in off-grid, fringes of cellular coverage and/or deployed their own private cellular (or Wi-Fi) networks.

The outlook for satellite broadband is going from strength to strength. The total number of satellite-enabled broadband subscriptions at the end of 2024 stood at 6.7 million and is expected to grow to 51 million by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.2 percent. Satellite broadband service revenue was estimated at $13.2 billion for 2025 and anticipated to grow to $50.7 billion by 2030. North America (58 percent) is projected to lead the satellite broadband market throughout most of the forecast period due to its high penetration of satellite technologies, significant lead in satellite network deployment, and supportive regulatory framework.

NTN - Direct to Cellular

NTN connectivity for smartphones, tablets, and laptops is very much the ‘Wild West’ of satellite communications. There is a swirling mix of SSPs, along with terrestrial cellular operators, mass market equipment vendors, and the national regulators and standards bodies striving to be the “sheriffs in town.”

Effectively, all the major NTN (aka direct-to-cellular, D2C) operators are based in the United States — Starlink, Skylo, Globalstar, and Iridium.

In September 2025, Starlink picked up EchoStar’s spectrum for $17 billion, which gives the SSP a major leg up in terms of capacity and coverage. Despite the initial momentum in North America, the Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to be the largest market for satellite D2C due to many areas still lacking adequate terrestrial coverage, falling costs of satellite connectivity, and higher smartphone penetration.

As we get closer to 2030, and the anticipated emergence of 3GPP’s 6G, the greater adoption of NB-NTN and new radio (NR)-NTN by device manufacturers, should lead to a ramp-up of NTN mobile connections based on 3GPP standards. However, SSPs such as Starlink are keen to leverage the existing installed base of 4G-capable devices for connectivity. Starlink’s current iteration of the service is showing that link budget limitations and current network capacity will limit the service's potential to move beyond text messaging. With the eventual proliferation of NTN-capable devices, which will reach nearly 2 billion by 2030, embracing standards that leverage globally harmonized spectrum will inevitably unlock more revenue opportunities, as superior link budget and, therefore, service performance and spectrum planning will enable far more use cases.

The total number of satellite-enabled D2C users — individuals or devices that have access to satellite connectivity through a consumer smartphone, including both free and paid access types — reached 585 million at the end of 2024 and is expected to grow to 2.6 billion by 2035, representing a CAGR of 10.9 percent. Service revenue was estimated to be $1.4 billion at the end of 2025 and has the potential to grow to $15.9 billion by 2030.

Seismic shifts are taking place in the satellite communications industry as disruptors, including Starlink, Amazon LEO, Chinese SSPs, and more bespoke SSPs such as AST SpaceMobile, make their presence felt. Spectrum congestion and launch capacity are key constraints, while 3GPP NB‑NTN/NR‑NTN standards and device ecosystems have the potential to unlock mass IoT and D2C use cases. The installed base of satellite IoT terminals will take some time to shift due to the long lifecycles of terminals in the field, but there will be new installs and low ARPCs that make scale and value‑added services essential.

Broadband and D2C hold out the promise of strong subscriber and revenue upside, those SSPs that effectively manage to secure access to spectrum, cost competitive devices, capital intensity, and diversified service stacks will be the ultimate winners. VS

Jake Saunders serves as vice president, Asia-Pacific & Advisory Services, heads ABI Research’s Asia-Pacific research division