10 Things Analysys Mason’s Space and Satellite Team Observed at SATELLITE 2024

Discussions at SATELLITE 2024 last month ranged from the biggest topics – Starlink, Kuiper, and persistent funding challenges – to emerging opportunities like direct-to-device and optical satcom that are making satellite and space an exciting and engaging topic. In this article, we'll take a closer look at what Analysys Mason’s satellite and space team observed at SATELLITE 2024 and what these observations mean for the future of the satellite industry.

SpaceX fatigue has set in. We know, we know … SpaceX is developing at a faster pace than any other space company. In fact, virtually every space company now has a ‘SpaceX strategy’ focused on either (hopeful) partnership or (not so hopeful) competition. More than one industry executive stated, “We are just tired of saying the word ‘SpaceX.’” However, SpaceX will continue to expand, which will increasingly have a direct impact on most of the space industry.

Rideshare missions will be an important feature for all heavy launch service providers. Rideshare is rapidly becoming the norm for all heavy launchers, regardless of whether this was the original plan. For example, Iwao Igarashi, VP of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, stated at SATELLITE 2024 that the company had not planned rideshare capability but will do so because it has Japanese customers that want to launch on a Japanese rocket.

Lack of progress on industry collaboration. With two giants, Amazon and SpaceX, looming over the industry, one would expect announcements about more collaboration. The Intelsat–OneWeb announcement is a good start, but we would have expected more like this.

Little concrete progress on 5G over satellite. Stakeholders in the telecoms industry, such as Mediatek, are working on 5G-standard terminals for satellite communications, but it is not clear how the satellite industry intends to incorporate that technology. Gilat and ST Engineering iDirect announced some plans, but, again, we would have expected more.

Starlink pushes forward in the direct-to-device (D2D) satellite market … but what about everyone else? Starlink was not the first company to enter the D2D space but with its innovation capabilities, it is now furthest ahead; it has multiple satellites in orbit and is running tests. How are Lynk and AST SpaceMobile reacting? Where are the traditional actors like Viasat/Inmarsat, EchoStar, Thuraya, etc.? There were some minor announcements by the Mobile Satellite Services Association and others, but again, given the speed of Starlink, this really needs to accelerate.

Is a GEO rebirth underway? Despite a prolonged slump in Geostationary Orbit (GEO) orders, we observed tempered optimism about the prospects for the GEO satellite market, albeit via new architectures and technologies. Terran Orbital’s newly-announced 300 kg SmallSat GEO on display is one example. Meanwhile, established manufacturing players (Airbus, Boeing, Maxar Space, MDA, and Thales Alenia Space) stated they are maintaining market share by evolving manufacturing and procurement practices. Digitization of supply-chain management, standardized platforms and aggressive pricing are all in play for a segment in dire need of a ‘rebirth.’

SpaceX not about to let go of Falcon 9. Despite several previous announcements from Musk, and the development of new vehicles, Falcon 9 will not be retired anytime soon. SpaceX Senior Director of Commercial Launch Sales Stephanie Bednarek, confirmed on a panel that Falcon 9 will fly for as long as there is demand. Starship is still being developed and is expected by some to take over the launch market, but Bednarek’s statement and the many demands on the new vehicle will probably mean that Starship will focus on larger missions, evolving human exploration infrastructure, leaving plenty of launch demand for Falcon 9 to serve.

The LEO economy continues to thrive. Advances in satellite manufacturing and launches, and a growing need for in-orbit capability and flexibility are driving the development of new Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) technologies. Continued investment for in-orbit service providers, such as Astroscale, Clearspace, and Varda Space, demonstrate growing confidence in technologies for LEO. Governments and the military will lead demand and support for satellite refuelling, relocation, and robotics, while commercial demand will push for cost-cutting or greenfield applications such as last-mile delivery and in-orbit manufacturing.

Pivot to government/military verticals. SpaceX and Starlink have created a new competitive environment and the global geopolitical environment is creating more demand and a bit more trust in commercial operators. These changes are shifting go-to-market strategies from volume-based commercial targets, such as broadband access to consumers, to high-value verticals, specifically government/military customers including the U.S. Department of Defense. Viasat and Hughes among others are implementing this strategy. However, SpaceX is going after this market as well, and Amazon will probably follow its example. Which vertical will be the next target? Or will players need to completely revamp their go-to-market strategies?

“Go big or go home!” The pace of innovation is unprecedented in the industry’s history and the scale to compete needs a corresponding response. According to Mark Boggett of Seraphim, the level of investment should be at least $300 million to $400 million to compete in this new environment. How can this be achieved in a tight investment climate? VS

Christopher Baugh is a partner at Analysys Mason