The Implications of Space as a Warfighting Domain

Space is evolving into a critical warfighting domain. With the U.S. Space Force indicating the potential anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities developed by Russia and China as a reason for the need for suitable space-based countermeasures, it is clearly an ongoing arms race in the space domain. Multiple space commands are being reinforced while some have detached to reestablish themselves as dedicated Space Forces.

With both kinetic and non-kinetic counterspace capabilities gaining prominence in the space domain, the defense forces now have consciously taken up the objective of establishing their respective space-based military deterrence across a wide range of use-cases. The growth of the commercial space industry resulting in a steadily crowding Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) space, the expectations for adversaries to interfere, deny or degrade one’s space capabilities under the veil of commercial activities is on the rise.

Space Forces & Weaponization of Space Capabilities

The implications of space becoming a warfighting domain will not be fully understood for some time, however the total weaponization of space is inevitable and its influence will extend to any terrain of terrestrial conflict.

The establishment of specialized space forces represents a paradigm shift in military deterrence, expanding conflicts beyond the atmosphere. The strategic importance of controlling space assets has birthed a new era where nations leverage orbital data supremacy as a deterrent. This evolution necessitates reevaluating defense strategies, recognizing that the ability to control space offers a distinct advantage in global military operations, especially with the growing asymmetric warfare domain.

In the evolving landscape of future warfare, LEO constellations emerge as pivotal assets that decide the leveraging factors. Offering real-time tracking, resilient communication networks, and advanced signals intelligence SIGINT capabilities, these constellations present a dynamic force multiplier in combat scenarios, as seen in all recent geopolitical conflicts.

Specifically, the future of missile defense and missile defeat will be contingent on the development, characteristics, and fielding timeline of orbital sensing & deterrence architectures among contenders. Currently, the U.S. is leading this segment with the ambitious multi-orbital Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA) program.

Beyond the classic anti-satellite kinetic arms race, space is now a realm of lasers and high-powered microwaves disrupting space assets. Electronic counterspace warfare takes center stage, with uplink jammers and downlink jammers creating chaos in data transmission. Cyber operations play a stealthy game, infiltrating satellites and ground stations to monitor, intercept, or even inject false data.

These counterspace weaponization schemes are expected to evolve towards more uncertain complexities, to cause incremental damage to space assets with the least effort. This opens up a new paradigm to space assets vulnerability assessment and requirement for deterrence, among the space powers.

In December 2023, Chinese military scientists from the National University of Defence Technology, revealed details on a classified space combat simulator that would potentially be utilized to address the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) apprehension of space threats.

The Next Big Thing

Space has emerged as a vital component of national defense strategy, with key space-faring nations like the U.S., Russia, and China poised to develop innovative defense space assets and capabilities for dynamic space operations, such as space mobility, logistics, and on-orbit servicing to outmaneuver and deter other nations.

However, essential capabilities like intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), as well as communication, will remain focal points for global space forces. Over the next three to five years, efforts will concentrate on establishing critical infrastructure for space-based assets. Space-based ISR capabilities are expected to advance beyond tracking troop movements and suspicious activity to include real-time threat detection and warning, tracking ballistic and hypersonic missiles, and enabling quick deployment and coordination. Space-based communication is paramount for the modern warfighter to enable timely communication and multi-domain, multi-platform interconnectedness. The future of the military will be greatly dependent on reliable, low-latency, and secure military communications enabled by a large network of Non-Geostationary Orbit (NGSO) and LEO satellite constellations.

Industry Engagement: Growth Opportunities for Startups & SMEs

As space evolves into a warfighting domain, this is accelerating the integration of advanced commercial space technology and capabilities into military operations. This transition will greatly impact the commercial collaboration and acquisition strategy of the defense sector, making it necessary to integrate commercial space capabilities as a key component of their future defense strategies.

In 2023, NATO’s DIANA program shortlisted 44 startups for an incubation effort targeting dual-use companies. The program has access to a 1 billion euro ($1.08 billion) investment with the initial 50 million euros ($53.92 million) annual budget being released in 2023. In 2023, the Space Development Agency had issued 29 contracts cumulatively exceeding $37 million and the same effort in 2022 involved 46 contract awards worth $3.7 million.

This transition implies that defense forces will increasingly be dependent on the commercial space sector for the procurement of space assets and the development of critical space infrastructure for mission-critical applications. But they will also position themselves as customers for commercial space-based services. This dual role as both purchaser and consumer will create opportunities for market participants in the space industry, fostering the pursuit of dual-use technologies and capabilities.

This increasing involvement of the defense sector in the space industry is expected to foster stronger partnerships with commercial entities, unlock new opportunities, stimulate growth, and contribute to increased defense funding within the space sector.

Conclusion

The 2024 U.S. Space Force budget has $19.2 billion allocated for research and development and $4.7 billion allocated for procurement. The total 2024 budget of $30 billion has grown from that of 2023 by 22 percent. Separately, the French Space Command has an approved military space budget of $6.7 billion allocated for 2024-2030.

While space forces are evolving with growing budgets, the space industry is also observing a large number of startup’s/SME’s attracting investments. The demand for new space capabilities in the defense sector is growing and multiple startups/SMEs are developing their portfolios to deliver against the same. While large prime contractors continue to lead space capability deliveries, the defense sector is increasingly engaging small businesses.

Establishing reliable space domain awareness is dominating ongoing efforts and future efforts will involve deployment of relevant offensive and defensive measures in space. The consequences of ongoing enhancement of missile defense systems with hypersonics is also driving investments in space capabilities. The future of militarized space will involve a closely knit mesh of diverse government and commercial agencies primarily serving the need to maintain outer-space accessible and safe for both the commercial and government agencies. The defense forces’ intent to reinforce their space-based deterrence will intensify moving forward, resulting in the next arms race being established in the space domain. VS

Image credit: Via Satellite archive photo