Industry Leaders Share Space and Satellite Forecasts for 2025

2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year in the satellite industry as we approach the second part of the 2020s. In an exclusive roundtable, the Via Satellite advisory board shares what they see as the big trends and issues in the industry in 2025.

The roundtable features: Lilac Muller, VP, Product Management, Kymeta; Ronald van der Breggen, CCO, Rivada Space Networks; Don Claussen, CEO, ST Engineering iDirect; Mike DeMarco, CCO, Intelsat; Chiara Manfletti, CEO, Neuraspace; Aida Alyaaqoubi, Manager, Spacecraft Analysis, Space42; Rebecca Cowen-Hirsch, Senior Vice President, Government Policy & Strategy, Viasat; Dylan Kesler, Director, Machine Learning and AI, Slingshot Aerospace and Joanne Wheeler, Managing Partner, Alden.

VIA SATELLITE: Viasat/Inmarsat, Eutelsat/OneWeb, SES/Intelsat. Which of these three pieces of consolidation do you think makes the most sense? How do the three pieces of consolidation change the dynamic of the industry?

Mueller: All three make sense with more to come but if I had to pick one, it would be the SES/Intelsat merger. While on the surface, the Viasat/Inmarsat makes sense because all of their assets operate in Ka-band, I’m not sure that they’ll challenge each other to drive innovation that is required to compete in today’s market. Eutelsat/OneWeb makes sense because of the GEO [Geostationary Orbit] and LEO [Low-Earth Orbit] Ku-band roaming possibility. But the French/UK/India culture blend may prove to be a challenge especially now with IRIS² bringing in the Germans and Italians into the mix. SES and Intelsat are separately focused on innovation, are more culturally aligned and the combined entity will have a dynamic CEO at the helm in Adel. I would place my bet on their future success.

VIA SATELLITE: Do you believe the direct-to-cell market will be the next big market in satellite? Why or why not?

Cowen-Hirsch: The term direct-to-device (D2D) encompasses many different use cases — both consumer and commercial — but we believe the primary opportunities are in direct-to-handset mobile device connectivity, automotive, and mass Internet-of-Things (IoT) solutions for industries. We describe these three key areas as connecting consumers, movers, and business users. When you look at the totality of this market potential, it is potentially vast. Most analysts expect it to be in the tens of billions of dollars range and, according Novaspace, D2D could connect 130 million users by 2032.

Alyaaqoubi: Yes, easy accessibility for the targeted customers without the additional costs and extra fees imposed by big telephone companies makes it appealing enough to sell. Direct-to-cell has had its fair share of success stories from several industries that rely on it for communication, but may require diligent work with the local telecommunications regulatory authorities to sign-off on the paperwork.

van der Breggen: I’m open to the idea but still need to see a compelling business case. While the technology to light up cell phones from satellites is fascinating, the economics need to work. Reaching critical mass with a customer base largely within existing cellular coverage remains a challenge. Until there’s a clear path to profitability with strong market penetration and value propositions, I’ll remain skeptical — but willing to be convinced.

VIA SATELLITE: What is one end user market to look out for in 2025, like aviation, maritime, telco, or government?

Claussen: Land mobile connectivity represents an incredible opportunity for 2025. Today, we still cannot drive from New York to Washington, D.C., without losing connectivity — a challenge we must solve. The market’s potential lies in delivering seamless, reliable connections for everyday vehicles, benefiting commuters, long-haul drivers, and families alike.

Key to this will be advancements in satellite technology, particularly software-defined GEO satellites, which excel in dense regions where LEO systems may face constraints. Smaller, more affordable satellite terminals tailored for practical use cases, like voice or basic data, will drive this innovation forward. Equally important is the integration of satellite and terrestrial networks, enabling new applications across industries.

Cowen-Hirsch: We see continued strong growth and exciting opportunities in the mobility and enterprise market segments we serve. My personal view is the government market is going to be fascinating to watch in 2025 and beyond. The first Trump administration was supportive of the broader space economy, and we expect that a second Trump administration will continue this focus, which will help all players.

van der Breggen: Security and data sovereignty will likely dominate the conversation. Governments and enterprises increasingly need secure data transport, not just storage. With terrestrial networks fragmented across multiple operators, there’s growing demand for single-provider solutions offering end-to-end security. As the focus shifts from price to reliability and safety, government and enterprise markets are set to grow in importance.

DeMarco: As momentum for multi-orbit service development builds, we will witness a wave of large-scale GEO and LEO satellite deployments across diverse sectors beyond commercial aviation. We will see new connectivity in 2025 in the agriculture and heavy equipment sector, in addition to enterprise and network sectors. Looking ahead to 2025, the next phase of the Intelsat-SoftBank partnership will focus on accelerating the trials of satellite-powered connectivity into broader mobile network infrastructures. This collaboration aims to refine the Ubiquitous Network by enhancing the synchronization and interoperability between satellite and terrestrial systems, blurring the lines between these traditionally separate domains.

Manfletti: Of the end-user markets I would choose defense and security due to the continued complex geopolitical situation. An underdog choice could be agriculture. Heightened global geopolitical tensions, as well as trade restrictions and migration, are increasingly influencing the agriculture sector. These factors elevate agriculture as a strategic and critical end-user market for satellite technologies.

VIA SATELLITE: What is one startup that you think will have a big future in the industry?

Wheeler: I would suggest Aalyria, which was spun out of Google to orchestrate the next generation of satellite networks. Aalyria envisions satellite networks as being provisioned by a diverse ecosystem of operators across multiple countries. The company has lead the charge in creating standardised APIs that satellite networks can use to interoperate and interconnect in ways that improves the resilience and capabilities of all networks.

VIA SATELLITE: The SATELLITE show is only around ten weeks away. What do you think will be the main talking points of the event? Do you think the conversation will be noticeably different to SATELLITE 2024?

Mueller: I do think that the conversation will be different because we are on the other side of the U.S. election. My projected top three topics are how AI will disrupt the space industry; what the advent of direct-to-cell means for the rest of the industry; and space domain awareness in light of global conflicts and satellite proliferation.

Claussen: While it’s tempting to say “Starlink, Starlink, Starlink,” that’s really a misdirected focus. What we really need is a broader conversation around ecosystem-level solutions — how satellite operators can differentiate themselves through interoperability and specialization. Starlink’s effect on industry dynamics is inextricably linked to its unending supply of capital. That should beg the question to the industry’s private equity: how might the sector evolve if there was significant investment elsewhere in the market?

Another significant theme is the bottleneck in launch capabilities, with SpaceX dominating the field. Competitive alternatives are urgently needed to meet the surging demand for launch services.

Cowen-Hirsch: I think we’ll see continued debate about whether single orbit (primarily proliferated LEO) versus multi-orbit solutions is going the be the future across different markets. This conversation itself won’t be new but with the consolidation momentum and partnerships happening across the industry, the tone of excitement about single orbit LEO solutions may be softer and shifted a bit to seeing the promise of multi-network as the best option – mainly because it’s what is going to best fit customer needs.

van der Breggen: Key topics will likely include the OneWeb outage and lessons learned, ongoing industry mergers, and advancements in ground systems, particularly flat-panel technology. Geopolitical developments will also drive discussions, with governments increasingly looking to satellites for secure communications and strategic resilience.

DeMarco: Big topics include how satellite operators and partners are going to address the convergence of a changing world – with new technologies, threats and opportunities. Into this big bucket of “change,” I would throw the growth in the IoT ecosystem, cloud connectivity, 5G-enabled applications, AI and ML. I’d also point to the global threat environment, as well as natural and manmade disasters. Add to this the challenges of connecting 3.5 billion unconnected people, all at a time in which sustainability will continue to grow in importance.

Manfletti: Key topics could be space domain awareness (SDA), defense needs, AI, hybrid satellite-terrestrial networks, and direct-to-cell services. I don’t necessarily believe the conversation will be noticeably different but will have progressed further in certain topics.

Wheeler: I don’t think the conversation will be too different. I still think LEO and D2D will play a large role, as well as sustainability conversations.

VIA SATELLITE: If there is one thing you could change in the satellite industry, what would it be and why?

Claussen: The industry needs a stronger influx of external investment. Too often, satellite companies have had to fund their own innovation while competing against heavily financed players like Starlink. The lack of private equity interest stems from the industry’s reputation for being slow to evolve — a perception rooted in outdated practices and a reluctance to embrace fresh perspectives. We need to attract talent from adjacent industries like networking and cloud computing, where the pace of innovation is faster. By diversifying leadership and adopting a more agile mindset, we can position satellite communications as a more attractive investment. The potential for growth is enormous, but we need to move faster to realize it.

Cowen-Hirsch: It would be to acknowledge the importance of protecting access to space – its orbits and spectrum – for all countries and to encourage both the industry and national regulators to appreciate that space is a vital long-term asset for the benefit of all and not the preserve of a few. Space sustainability is important for all the industries and end users that benefit from the services that are enabled or supported by space. With a long-term view, the only truly healthy space economy will be a sustainable one.

Alyaaqoubi: Unlike the major industries like oil and gas, technology, aviation, etc., the satellite industry often seems out of reach for the public and our communities, considering they are our also our ‘end customers’ even though we sometimes rely on a third-party entity to provide satellite services. The satellite industry conferences and news need to change communication approaches to include public knowledge in the simplest and digestible way for our communities to understand the industry as an outsider. It’s an indirect way to promote and recognize the unfathomable hours of great work done that positively impacts people’s lives without their awareness.

van der Breggen: I’d like to see more diversity, both cultural and gender-based, in leadership roles. Despite being a global industry, it remains dominated by older, white males. To better represent the markets we serve, the industry needs to prioritize inclusivity and attract a broader range of voices.

Manfletti: For industry, for public sector investments: reverse from 70 percent R&D and 30 percent service/product procurement to 30 percent R&D and 70 percent product/service procurement. These numbers are for Europe, will be slightly different in the U.S. and globally. This will stimulate the market and encourage more private investments in space by offering companies attractive, usable applications while simultaneously fostering long-term confidence in the sector.

VIA SATELLITE: What is one prediction for what will happen in space and satellite in 2025?

Claussen: 2025 will be the year multi-orbit systems become a commercial reality. We’ve laid the groundwork for dynamic tracking and switching between GEO, LEO, MEO and HEO orbits, and the first on-orbit implementations will come into service next year (they are in on-orbit testing now). These systems will unlock new use cases, from high-bandwidth enterprise applications to dynamic resource allocation for government and mobility markets. As the year progresses, we’ll see multi-orbit solutions shift from being industry “firsts” to mainstream offerings, reshaping how satellite networks are deployed and managed.

Cowen-Hirsch: There are lots of exciting things to look forward to in 2025 and beyond. One prediction is that while the current excitement around new entrants and advanced technologies will continue, the future of satellite communications will increasingly be seen through the lens of multi-dimensional networks and not through the oversimplified view or fascination with any particular orbit.

van der Breggen: I expect 2025 to bring us a few big moves. Whether it’s another large consolidation, a high-profile bankruptcy, or billion-dollar deal. With so much geopolitical activity and transformation in the industry, something big is bound to happen.

Manfletti: Change!

Kesler: In 2025, I am sure that we will be amazed by the ways in which AI is used by the space industry. In the past, we have insisted on ensuring that autonomous space systems always include a ‘human in the loop.’ During 2025, I suspect that we will begin to question decisions that have not been vetted through AI reasoners. For important decisions, we will stop asking whether there was a human in the loop and begin to insist on “having AI in the room.”

Wheeler: A launch from Shetland; greater telecoms and satellite integration, and finally you will hear a lot more on space sustainability and various solutions. VS