Tech Leaders Talk Up Quantum, New Manufacturing Technologies, and Telecoms Integration

Satellite industry CTOs talked up novel manufacturing techniques, integration with terrestrial networks, including direct-to-device connectivity, and a new market for satellite services in quantum key distribution, during a panel at SATELLITE on Tuesday.

Xavier Bertrán, the chief product and innovation officer for Luxembourg-based provider SES, made the case for radical changes in the way the industry does business.

“We’re currently being very heavily disrupted,” he said, in an apparent reference to the rapid expansion of Starlink. “What’s needed is a fundamental shift in the legacy business model. That has to change.”

Bertrán called for a greater emphasis on efficiency and using cost-effective products off the shelf rather than tailoring unique boutique solutions each time.

That change is happening already, Bertrán said. “You’re seeing a shift in manufacturing. Previously, there was a lot of integration of components with a lot of harnesses, very complicated,” causing issues in the assembly process. “You’re seeing a move away from harnesses, to more integrated circuits, more [component] stacking, more higher volume, higher scalability solutions,” he said. These changes will shorten lead times and mission planning cycles, he added.

Antonio Abad Martín, CTO and COO for Hispasat, said the development of megaconstellations in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) offered a different perspective on satellite manufacture from the much larger single Geostationary Orbit (GEO) satellites which had traditionally been the bread-and-butter of the industry

The LEO constellations made very different demands on manufacturers. A single, boutique GEO satellite had to be completely reliable, he said, because if it failed, the service failed. In LEO constellations, “because of their numbers, some of them can fail and the service will still be there, still be provided,” they can afford a lower level of reliability.

The more efficient mass production of satellites was key for the new LEO constellations, allowing their owners to vertically integrate and scale.

The commodification of satellite manufacture would have other advantages too, argued Mark Dickinson, CTO of Neo Space Group. “We’ve all worked on satellites that have been delayed by weeks or months because of one part from one supplier,” he said.

These new techniques in engineering and manufacturing pioneered by the LEO constellations are bringing prices down as well, Dickinson added, but warned the harsh environment of space imposes a definite limit on quality compromises.

“No one is going to thank you for building the cheapest possible spacecraft if it doesn’t work,” he said.

Martin pointed out that emerging technologies, quantum computing and quantum communications, would open up a whole new market for satellite services. Quantum computing will shortly allow computers powerful enough to break most contemporary asymmetric encryption algorithms. Quantum encryption uses the extraordinary properties of the very smallest subatomic particles to protect communications from interception and monitoring. But any global system employing it would need satellites to distribute the encryption keys, Martin said, because the optical properties of the key meant it could travel a maximum of 100 kilometers on a fibre optic cable. Satellites could deliver them anywhere on earth using lasers.

Hispasat has invested 100 million euros in quantum key distribution technology which would be integrated into a satellite being launched in 2028. “By 2029,” he said, “we will be able to do quantum key distribution over a third of the world.”

The discussion also offered a corrective to the excitement over direct-to-device satellite communications. “The question is what kind of experience will customers get and how much will they pay for it,” asked Dickinson. He noted that T-Mobile is charging $15 per month for text messaging service, and questioned whether there are enough people who will pay that price to truly realize the $30 billion market that has been predicted.

Bertran suggested the real future of direct to device will serve as a complement to other sources of connectivity. “Some sectors are interested” in such a service, he said. “There is a space there,” he said, “But will there be many players? I don’t think so.”

Paradoxically, Telespazio Chief Technology and Innovation Officer Marco Brancati said the extraordinary growth in satellite capacity, a result of improving technology, growing numbers of constellations and the emergence of multi-orbit networks, could only be “realized and properly managed if we put necessary intelligence on the ground.”

Systems using artificial intelligence and machine learning would, he predicted, will soon be allocating users the bandwidth they need and then routing their traffic across the service providers network in the most efficient way — taking account of system capacity, traffic load and even weather predictions.

That “intelligence on the ground,” he predicted, would be “the key to the efficient use of this additional capacity and to the success of multi-orbit strategies.”

Dickinson said he is growing impatient with predictions about the new multi-orbit world. “We heard a lot of predictions about multi-orbit … A lot of money has been spent, but we haven’t really seen a system optimized for that. It’s time for delivery.” VS