A Guide to the Latest Trends in Policy and Innovation in Space Defense

For some, the renewed focus on defense in the space sector is a concerning trend. But for others, it’s a big opportunity. There is no shortage of new space companies entering the sphere with commercial and defense offerings, each seeking to keep up with historical players who have long played the dual game. In turn, governments are looking to legislate where they can, use space assets where possible in the spirit of the ‘connected battlefield,’ and encourage dual-use technologies.

To understand what might represent a concern, an opportunity, or simply what to keep an eye on, here are some of the important trends you should take note of this year.

Space Situational Awareness (SSA), Space Domain Awareness (SDA), and Space Traffic Management (STM)

So many satellites, so much more connectivity, and so much more traffic. The rush of commercialization has created a vast network of satellites with sophisticated and valuable technologies on which we rely. The security of those assets is imperative, from tracking debris to collision avoidance technologies and in-orbit servicing or de-orbiting technologies. The goal is to keep space running smoothly and with transparency. Companies and governments want to ensure their capabilities are protected, and everyone wants to know everything that’s happening. With significant investments in those arenas, there is high potential for commercial growth in this area while governments concern themselves with space sustainability, STM, and SSA regimes.

Dual-Use Technologies

Besides governments encouraging the development of dual-use technologies through grants, research projects, or funding streams, only a few space companies don’t yet have services for both government and the private sector. In fact, if you are a space small and medium-sized enterprise, you should be able to show the multiplicity of your service or product, with a high threshold of security requirements. It’s a good thing that Earth observation imagery, communication satellites, launchers, and other space capabilities can easily service public and private sector needs. While governments are encouraging the development of dual-use capabilities, regulating the intersection of technologies or drafting policy for new emerging technologies is proving complicated. This brings us to emerging technologies.

Integrating Emerging Tech

Innovation is commonplace in space and defense; it is often where new technologies are first tested. Experimental payloads are being launched all the time, and while incumbent players offer vital services, an increase in spinouts with new ideas is opening new landscapes for space’s potential. Quantum-encrypted communications isn’t a real service yet, but some companies are upselling themselves as innovators and market movers – and they don’t need to be in Geostationary Orbit (GEO).

In particular, Low-Earth Orbit constellations have brought near real-time 24/7 coverage for end users. While impressive, copious amounts of data are wasted and need pre-processing on-board or in-orbit. This is where AI comes in. Newer platforms can run AI models in space to then ensure that only the actionable information is sent to Earth. This enables important functions, like collision avoidance, to be run on-board and fully automated.

Governments are still grappling with AI legislation and policy, so the addition of space is going to take a while. In turn, countries are looking at how to upgrade or create new space legislation to capture these transformations, inspired by existing regulations. This creates opportunities for disruptor companies – or established companies with a strong public sector customer base – to differentiate themselves and champion policy in a way that protects their interests. Collaboration in the space industry is common, so policymakers should cast a wide net for feedback on incoming legislation and policy.

Cybersecurity is also getting a rethink. From assets launched in the 1980s with almost no embedded security, the increasing hacks, hijacking, and spoofing interferences have revealed that the ground segment is the way into a system. However, the industry is quickly realizing there is so much more to it. Like in most cybersecurity cases, the right data gets you the right access – but it’s been a while since satellites were just floating Linux computers.

Between communications networks, infrastructure, grids, and GPS, to name just a few applications, modern space-enabled systems are more precarious. With interconnected systems, cybersecurity is pivotal to their survival. Governments are investing in encryption, intrusion detection systems, and secure communication protocols. There are also international movements to establish norms and standards for responsible behavior and mitigation of cyber conflicts.

Resilient Everything

As a buzzword, resilience has spread like wildfire in space-faring nations. The threat landscape has shifted from not only using space to protect ground capabilities but also protecting space assets in return. The value chain must therefore be secure, while assets should be adaptive and, according to most policymakers, nationalized. Even nations new to the sector are starting to include stricter market access conditions from inception. As this trend increasingly aligns with geopolitics, it presents a greater concern for space companies, who need an international supply chain or wide customer base. But it also presents the opportunity for companies to obtain support in an otherwise highly competitive sector by being national champions.

Weapons in Space?

The potential militarization of space has fascinated the media but largely remained theoretical. A test ban was adopted following high-altitude nuclear tests in the 1960s, while the Outer Space Treaty (1967) formally prohibited the placement of nuclear arms in space. Conventional weapons in space remain a possibility, but one that is still to be realized.

Of course, ground-based anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons and electronic warfare (DEW) are real. In response, satellites are increasingly equipped with hardened electronics, anti-jamming systems, and maneuverability capabilities. DEWs are gaining momentum, becoming the subject of government research. They seem more likely to catch on than kinetic weapons because they also limit collateral damage, like debris, in more targeted attacks. DEWs also offer faster, more precise, and more cost-effective strikes.

Challenges and Opportunities

While this article covers only a fraction of the current trends, it’s clear that those who hedged their bets on the peaceful use of outer space with commercialization leading the way may be disappointed by an increasing focus on space defense. However, with our growing reliance on space capabilities, resilience and redundancy are critical tools.

Governments are still turning to the private sector to take the initiative on these developments, presenting companies with the opportunity to shape policy. In turn, policymakers can spur more technological innovation in a sector desiring rapid growth and requiring significant investment. International organizations like the United Nations and International Telecommunication Union will continue to lead overarching conversations with multi-stakeholder input. If we revert to more nationalist and protectionist measures, we will need them to do so to ensure the continued exploration and utilization of the final frontier. VS

Lea Pavlovic is a Space & Connectivity Strategy Manager for Access Partnership. She advises firms on strategy, policy, and regulatory affairs in the space, spectrum, and defense ecosystems. She is also Vice Chair for the Security, Defence and Space Committee at AmCham EU.

Lead photo: Via Satellite archive photo