What Russia’s Attack on Undersea Energy Infrastructure Means for Satellites

After the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea burst, Swedish investigators found evidence that Russia detonated the pipelines in an act of “gross sabotage.” Russia’s sabotage was done for many reasons, including to signal that Russia does not care about sanctions from the EU. It is also a signal that they do not care about controlling escalation and do not care about the ecological damage that other kinds of weapons — including nuclear and chemical — may cause.

There are other messages as well. This attack, although done in a way that allows Russia to lie and say it was not done by them, is a clear message that they will attack any infrastructure they want, including undersea systems like energy pipelines, but also undersea communications cables. It shows the risk of attacks against space-based infrastructure have grown.

Just prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia conducted tests of space based attack systems, demonstrating an anti-satellite attack on one of its own defunct satellites. Now, they have shown they can attack undersea systems and will do so when they want. This is where your action comes in.

If you are a planner or decision-maker in any business in the free world you need to revisit your threat models. It is time to assess how your business will survive and thrive in an age where critical infrastructure like space-based communications is attacked. All organizations should assess their dependence on space. Below are some recommendations on the threat to key systems, including space-based infrastructure.

Businesses can and should take action now to reduce risk to operations from attacks against both space based and undersea systems. Since we are in a period of fast action and dynamically shifting situations, look at ways to optimize your own decision-making, with an eye towards speeding up your processes. Think of your own OODA loop — the cycle of observe, orient, decide, and act, developed by military strategist and U.S. Air Force Colonel John Boyd. Accelerate your review of internal corporate decision-making. This is also a good time to review corporate approaches to training staff and executives on critical thinking, training on how to counter misinformation and disinformation.

Larger companies should hire or appoint a senior liaison for working with the U.S. Department of State, Department of Commerce and Department of Homeland Security to ensure your company is as informed as possible on government actions and intentions in regards to the threat, and to ensure your corporate interests are known by the government.

Assess your dependence on space and on undersea fiber optics. This includes understanding how your business and supply chain use space and fiber to communicate, as well as any inputs to your decision-making process that come from data collected from assets in space.

After assessing your dependence on space and undersea assets, assess space-related risks. We recommend doing so through scenario-based evaluations involving the materialization of risks.

Decide who in the executive team is responsible for understanding and mitigating risks due to infrastructure attacks. Ensure appropriate governance over actions related to space including processes that depend on these infrastructures.

Ensure the leadership team of your organization are involved in developing response and recovery plans tailored to your dependence and the risks to your business. Document response and recovery plans as part of your overall disaster recovery process.

Develop incident response processes aligned with your business. This may include leveraging your internal Security Operations Center as a hub of information during an incident.

Practice incident response including periodic executive-level tabletop exercises that run through scenarios of space-based incidents. Evaluate your incident response plans and dependence on infrastructure by using independent evaluation, verification, and validation services.

Ensure you are collaborating with peer organizations, including your sector’s Information Sharing and Analysis Center (ISAC), and ensure these topics are being discussed in these venues. These steps can reduce the risk to operations from potential attacks. VS

Bob Gourley is the co-founder and CTO of OODA LLC, a global cybersecurity and technology consultancy.