How Will Starlink’s United and Air France Wins Impact the IFC Market?

It’s been a busy period for SpaceX’s Starlink program, proving it can disrupt the in-flight connectivity (IFC) market. In September, Starlink signed a head-turning deal with United Airlines and another significant deal with Air France, followed by Qatar Airways. These carriers will be equipping aircraft with Starlink terminals in order to offer their passengers free high-speed internet.

This flurry of deals begs the question of if Starlink and a LEO-only play will dominate the IFC market in the long term. Via Satellite asked some of the industry’s leading analysts about what these deals mean for the evolving IFC market.

While other operators like Viasat, Intelsat, and Hughes Network Systems have sizable IFC backlogs, the United Airlines and Air France deals signified a shakeup — marking the first votes of confidence for Starlink IFC from major air carriers.

“The United deal was huge for Starlink, not just in terms of the fleet size, but in terms of the symbolism,” says David Whelan, senior analyst at Valour Consultancy and IFC specialist in commercial aviation. “Many of the aircraft that Starlink had signed contracts for up to that point had either been previously unconnected or had frustrations with the service they had been offering. United already had a relationship in place with Viasat, Intelsat, Panasonic and Thales for its IFC services and has chosen to strip their hardware off and replace it with Starlink.”

The Early Birds Get the Deal

Do these Starlink wins indicate that some airlines want a LEO-only solution for IFC? There’s more to it than that, analysts say.

Starlink’s entry into the market coincided with a series of unfortunate events for other providers, says Vishal Patil, a Novaspace analyst with specialization in mobility and IFC. This series included the ViaSat-3 F1 anomaly and the total loss of Inmarsat I6F2, while OneWeb’s full entry into service has been delayed until the spring of 2025. This current advantage doesn’t have to singularly cement Starlink as the leader, but shows airlines are interested in LEO.

“A way to look at it is to consider how Starlink’s LEO-only capacity proves to airlines its suitability to meet passenger connectivity needs and expectations. This doesn’t have to mean a Starlink-only win, but rather a win for LEO-only capacity, and any provider offering LEO for IFC can be an attractive candidate if they make themselves so,” says Patil.

Airlines choosing Starlink, or rather LEO-only play would be a significant shift from the long-established GEO backbone of IFC. But this isn’t the only big change in aviation, notes Patil. Previously, looking back around six years or so, airlines were concerned with SLAs because they were focused on passenger experience. However, today, this focus has changed: Starlink has not offered SLAs up to this point.

“It’s interesting that a carrier like United or Air France is willing to use Starlink without SLAs. United has part of its fleet equipped with Viasat already, and, similarly, Air France has part of its fleet already equipped with Inmarsat (and now Viasat). It seems clear that these carriers are comfortable shifting away from the tried-and-tested GEO IFC offering and partnering with LEO-only Starlink, even without SLAs. One can only assume that these carriers know what they, or rather their passengers want. They’ve had about a decade of user experience and technology learning,” says Patil.

He notes this could change in the future, and there are signs things are changing. Speedcast, which integrates Starlink for customers in maritime and enterprise, recently announced that Starlink will offer a 99.9 percent SLA in 2025. It remains to be seen what this means for the IFC market.

Multi-Orbit Strategies

More than one approach will work for the aviation industry, notes Daniel Intolubbe-Chmil, director of research and services at Harbor Research. A hybrid multi-orbit, multi-band satellite future with advanced managed services will remain prevalent as a cornerstone to the connectivity strategy for aviation market participants.

The ability to optimize service delivery specific to the combination of environmental and weather conditions, end use and edge requirements, and available resources or bandwidth necessitates a “not only-LEO” strategy.

“While the LEO-first approach is clearly a winning strategy in the market today, it’s a piece of the future IFC and satellite connectivity puzzle. The rise of LEO constellations has enriched the future landscape of multi-orbital, multi-constellation network services. Coupled with virtualized managed services, leveraging high-capacity Ka band, there will continue to be competitive opportunities to disrupt the standalone LEO strategy,” Intolubbe-Chmil says.

The evolving landscape of multi-orbit systems will likely challenge the effectiveness of the LEO-only strategy. SES and Intelsat are adapting their approach by moving closer to end users through the provision of managed and end-to-end services. This strategic shift, says Shagun Sachdeva, Senior Analyst, Space and Satellite, Analysys Mason, is designed to create barriers to entry against not only Starlink, but also other emerging competitors in the satellite market.

“By integrating their services and focusing on user-centric solutions, these companies can enhance customer satisfaction and loyalty. Moreover, the merger between SES and Intelsat will enable them to achieve significant cost synergies through fleet optimization. By efficiently managing their satellite fleets across multiple orbits, they can improve operational efficiencies and reduce costs. This optimization is crucial in a competitive global market, where service quality and price are key differentiators,” says Sachdeva.

As these companies implement their multi-orbit strategies, it will be essential to monitor how effectively they can compete against LEO-focused providers like Starlink, while capitalizing on the unique advantages that multi-orbit systems offer.

“The outcome of these strategic moves will likely shape the future of satellite communications and influence market dynamics significantly,” says Sachdeva.

As additional constellations begin to serve the industry, various other factors will come into play as each constellation operates under its own strategy and developmental timeline. OneWeb, now part of Eutelsat Group, has partnered with Intelsat to demonstrate IFC capabilities across polar regions. Telesat is focused on serving enterprise clients across terrestrial, maritime, and aviation. They offer dedicated service levels specifically tailored to meet business needs.

When airlines evaluate satellite service options, they will consider multiple factors, including coverage and performance, regulatory compliance, SLAs, and strategic partnerships, notes Sachdeva.

“That said, SpaceX is well-positioned to become a dominant player in the IFC market due to its technological innovations, ability to scale rapidly, and strategic alliances. This creates substantial challenges for traditional satellite providers, who must innovate and adapt to stay competitive in a landscape increasingly favoring LEO solutions,” she says.

Consolidation & Competition

It’s clear that airlines now want some form of LEO play – either in the form of LEO-only or a multi-orbit service, says Valour Consultancy’s Whelan. He points to consolidation among traditional operators — Eutelsat/OneWeb, Viasat/Inmarsat and SES/Intelsat — as evidence that operators are adjusting their strategies. All of these mergers could significantly impact the IFC market due to enhanced service quality through integrating diverse technologies and blending resources and expertise.

“I think any IFC provider that is offering GEO-only will probably struggle to win big contracts going forward. The tide has turned, and GEO operators are looking to get LEO play in place,” says Whelan, pointing to Intelsat, Hughes, and Panasonic all having multi-orbit offerings with OneWeb. Viasat has confirmed it is in talks to buy LEO capacity from Telesat as well.

Starlink will face its own obstacles to win more of the market. Whelan says that Starlink has been winning business partly because it’s undercutting other services in the market, and partly because of a desire for an airline like United to be ‘first’ among its competitors to offer it. This is still a differentiator — for now, Whelan says.

“The counter argument to Starlink is that it’s already started raising prices; it may be that United got the last great deal. Soon, there may not be much of a price advantage at all. The other counter argument to Starlink is that there may be limits to how many customers they can take on in specific areas. If the network is too in-demand, the quality of service could be threatened in busy hubs,” he says.

With the consolidation of financial and technical resources, these merged companies can invest more heavily in infrastructure and technology. This is critical for enhancing bandwidth and reducing latency, which are essential for delivering high-quality IFC services, adds Sachdeva.

“The consolidation will alter the competitive dynamics within the market, strengthening the negotiating power of these larger entities with airlines, and potentially leading to better terms for IFC solutions. These partnerships are also likely to improve global coverage, which is vital for airlines operating in diverse geographical areas. A more extensive satellite network will allow these companies to provide consistent service across a wider range of routes, addressing significant pain points in the IFC market,” says Sachdeva.

With fierce competition building in the marketplace, Amazon’s Project Kuiper could add another layer to the landscape. The deployment of over 3,200 Ka-band satellites in LEO will allow Kuiper to cover vast geographical areas, including underserved regions. This capability would be essential for airlines that operate on diverse routes, ensuring reliable connectivity for passengers regardless of their location.

“The introduction of Kuiper into the IFC market will increase competition among satellite service providers, pushing existing players to enhance their offerings. As airlines seek to differentiate themselves, this competition could lead to improvements in service quality and pricing for consumers,” says Sachdeva.

By leveraging Amazon Web Services (AWS), Kuiper could provide integrated solutions that enhance security, scalability, and performance for airlines. This integration, notes Sachdeva, may appeal to airlines looking for robust, all-in-one connectivity solutions.

“Kuiper's entry could also lead to new partnerships between satellite providers and airlines, facilitating better service agreements and more customized solutions for different airline needs. This collaboration will further drive innovation in the IFC sector,” says Sachdeva.

Of course, it’s impossible to tell with certainty until Kuiper becomes a reality, says Whelan, adding that the “unknown” includes whether it’s just too late.

“Kuiper remains a bit of an unknown, and I don’t think publicly-stated timelines will be met. I would be surprised if we see an airline using Kuiper commercially before 2028. It’s hard to say what happens after that, Kuiper could enter the market and undersell Starlink; however, it could also find it’s a bit late to the party,” says Whelan.

The Next Big Deal

According to Novaspace’s Patil, from the perspective of the hybrid solution, it will depend on how many airlines linefit their aircraft with multi-orbit terminals. While this is currently very localized, with installations mainly taking place in North America, he expects to see increased adoption on the back of terminal developments affecting cost, power consumption, drag, and temperature.

“In my opinion, it’s just a matter of time for these developments to reach a point where greater adoption is seen. However, I still believe that this adoption will be limited by geographic routes and premium use cases,” says Patil.

Contracting decisions are complex and multifaceted, adds Sachdeva. Airlines have to take into consideration the technological capabilities, market trends, pricing strategies, and regulatory frameworks.

As industry players aim to secure significant airline contracts, the focus will be on demonstrating reliable, high-performance service capabilities.

“Companies will need to prove their technology can provide consistent coverage and high-speed connectivity across diverse geographic regions, including over oceans and remote areas. Additionally, establishing partnerships that enhance service offerings and addressing regulatory compliance will be crucial. As competition heats up, particularly with the entry of new players like Amazon's Project Kuiper, providers will need to differentiate themselves by ensuring exceptional customer experiences and technological advantages,” she says. VS