Orbital Refueling Represents a Growth Opportunity for In-Space Services

Orbital refueling serves to revive defunct satellites in Geostationary Orbit (GEO), refilling the empty propellant tanks of satellites that have lost their respective station-keeping capabilities. This allows satellite operators to extract greater returns on their investments and provides sufficient replacement time by enabling the satellites to extend their mission time in space.

This journey that began with orbital refueling as the starting point has now come full circle, touching base on objectives including but not limited to in-space manufacturing (assembly), in-orbit servicing (inspection, repair, and replacement), space-based situational awareness, and so on.

At the same time, there is also an emerging demand for sustainability. Government and commercial agencies are stepping up their efforts to counter the rising safety concerns in space owing to the growing number of space debris along with increasing space congestion — especially in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) due to small satellite constellations. Additionally, initiatives such as the ongoing Clean Space Initiative launched by the European Space Agency or the recent announcement from the U.K. government about new funding for space sustainability projects are enabling capabilities to enhance the safety of future space missions.

Growth in the industry can be attributed to small satellite technology for enabling such novel ideas, largely within the New Space industry. Both startups and established participants are now developing in-orbit servicing capabilities. The in-space manufacturing, servicing, and transportation market is a lucrative market and is expected to reach $7.55 billion by 2030, as per the market intelligence report published by BIS Research. The market analysis revealed that there are several key drivers and opportunities associated with the market.

Mission Life Extension Through Orbital Refueling

OrbitFab, a New Space startup founded in 2019, plans to establish an in-orbit refueling station which can support such orbital refueling requirements on an ongoing basis. In 2021, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman invested in this startup, indicating the growing interest among established incumbents to be a part of the fast-growing New Space economy. What started as an ad-hoc effort to refuel satellites is now evolving to become a full-fledged in-space service market in the future.

In 2020, NASA awarded contracts worth $256.1 million to Eta Space, Lockheed Martin, SpaceX, and United Launch Alliance, with the collective objective to build, test, and validate the in-orbit fuel collection, storage, and distribution capability of these players. Similarly, Northrop Grumman’s SpaceLogistics subsidiary offers a wide range of in-orbit services, including orbital refueling (propellant augmentation). Space Logistics has already succeeded in extending the mission lives of two Geostationary satellites through its Mission Extension Vehicles (MEV) 1 and 2, which are servicing two Intelsat satellites.

The Evolution of New Space Technologies

The space industry has reached that stage of development where the goal to reach an in-orbit spacecraft and rendezvous safely on-demand seems in reach. The small-satellite-based capabilities focused on orbital inspection, repair, and deorbiting are also currently under development. Companies such as Aurora Propulsion have developed Aurora Plasma Break, which is designed to deorbit a satellite from orbits up to 1,000 kilometers. With such logistics for in-orbit servicing already being established, the viability of orbital refueling service is no longer questionable. This can be attributed to the contribution of the New Space participants such as OrbitFab and SpaceLogistics for leading the effort toward this evolving market. Additionally, the investments by established participants indicate the growing participation of established companies in the New Space economy.

Future of In-Space Services

While small satellites can and are being utilized for small-scale in-orbit servicing (including robotic refueling) missions, the enhanced versions of the same could utilize larger platforms depending on the servicing payload that is to be developed. The orbital refueling service involving an in-orbit refueling station that can receive, store, manage, and supply fuel to multiple missions is on its way to scheduled in-orbit operations. This could potentially serve as the in-orbit hub for a wide range of in-orbit servicing capabilities, including: orbital spacecraft refueling; inspection, repair, and replacement; in-orbit assembly; satellite deorbiting; and satellite life-extension.

With multiple deep space missions being planned by the government and commercial agencies, orbital refueling capability will remain critical in recovering from and/or avoiding anomalies that might compromise the mission’s primary objectives. Besides extending satellite missions in orbit, orbital refueling services are expected to support a wide range of space missions (the extent of support is subjective, varying from mission to mission). This will enhance the return on investments and reduce the timeline pressure on launch services as the replacement timelines get extended for satellite missions.

If orbital refueling evolves into the center of the in-orbit servicing market in the future, we could be looking at yet another lucrative New Space market segment that would take the space industry into the next generation of technological and operational disruption, to the benefit of the entire space industry eventually trickling down to enhanced and new products and services for diverse downstream markets globally. VS

Nilopal Ojha is the lead research analyst for Aerospace & Defense at BIS Research. He is in charge of conducting research across aviation, space, and defense verticals.