The Clock is Ticking: UK Launch Sector is Ready to Lift Off

August 2024 could mark one of the most important points in the United Kingdom’s space history, with plans underway for the first vertical launch from U.K. soil. If the launch goes as planned, it will make headlines beyond the space industry and beyond the U.K. After Virgin Orbit’s high-profile air-launch failure in 2023, the stakes could not be higher for the companies involved.

Matthew Archer, director of Launch for the UK Space Agency (UKSA), believes successful vertical launches from the U.K. would be a “massive statement” of intent for the nation’s space industry. He believes it would signify the U.K.’s overall global intent.

“There is no credible path to being a top-tier space nation without a launch capability. It is significant for the U.K. and the space sector to show we have this capability,” he says. “For the broader space sector, one of the things we saw from the launch from Cornwall is that it is a massive opportunity to show the best of what the U.K. space sector brings. It is often something that goes unseen and people don’t really know what the space sector does, and the value it brings to the U.K.”

After what happened last year with Virgin Orbit, Archer says there is pressure and “people do feel it.” He thinks the market dynamics have changed, and that the world is a very different place than it was 18 months ago, when cash was relatively cheap to obtain.

“Nowadays, it is much harder to raise investment revenue, particularly when you have risks like launch. Generally, the market is in a good place. If you look at companies like Orbex, they have already completed their C-series round, and I know they have further good news coming. I know they are making good progress with their launch vehicle,” he says. “While these risks don’t go away as they are still startup enterprises, I am hopeful their technology will be robust, and the company will get there. We will keep an eye on it. The government can offer support. It can be an exciting time ahead.”

The UKSA is focused on facilitating a faster environment for launch and how to do things more effectively. Its first phase was R&D grants which required match funding, which shared risk between the government and the private sector.

As the sector has grown, Archer has a keen sense that the government would be better off placing a contract for a number of launches on the basis that would enable companies to generate private sector revenue to finish the capital investment phase.

“My sense is that it was the right instrument when we designed the program six to seven years ago. For what we are trying to do next, we are looking to design interventions that provide a strong signal of support from the government. This is how we can help you catalyze private sector investment and get through to the profitable point where you can run your business without government intervention,” he says.

Counting Down to August

Shetland is an archipelago in the North Sea with a population of around 23,000 people. It is also the basis of one of the BBC’s most notable detective dramas in recent years. This coming August, the eyes of the space world will be on Shetland for a historic moment when Rocket Factory Augsburg attempts a vertical orbital launch.

Debbie Strang, COO of the SaxaVord Spaceport, has been working tirelessly with her team to make the dreams of successful launch from Shetland a reality.

The clock really started to tick when SaxaVord gained its spaceport license in December, which Strang hails as “a fantastic achievement” and a culmination of seven years’ work. The license application team itself had been working on it for three years. Work continues ahead of the first launch.

The spaceport received planning permission in March 2022 and had the first launch pad completed by September of that same year. This involved certain work before construction because it is a scheduled monument site, and there was work to widen roads and make the ground suitable before construction could begin. The launch stool for Rocket Factory Augsburg was installed in December of that year.

“You have to look at the exclusion zones, the safety distances and flight corridors, etc. We had the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) on site recently for their post license award visit to see how things are progressing. The detailed work is still continuing. We have also had contingency planning exercises with the police, ambulance, Coast Guard, etc. It is difficult to predict where you are going to be. We are the first and working through everything, and that perhaps makes it even more difficult,” she says.

One of Strang’s biggest frustrations through this process was that the spaceport wasn't taken seriously from the start. She says if the spaceport had received earlier recognition and understanding, things might have moved more quickly.

“Maybe the lack of belief and awareness is because the space launch side of things is so new. I suppose we were perhaps unusual, but it did feel at times that people and government didn’t think we were going to get our spaceport license — and we did,” she says. “As a private sector company, we can be more agile than the public sector and can move at great speed.”

A lack of understanding at the political level while the infrastructure was built is perhaps not a great surprise to people in the space industry. However, as more people and politicians have visited the site, things have begun to change.

“People’s jaws drop open once they see the scale of the spaceport,” she says. “ It is really important not only see the site, but understand how the supply chain works in Shetland and how straightforward it is to get there, despite the time it might take.”

Now it is weeks away from the first launch. Strang knows the statistics for the rate of success for first launches, but believes whatever happens in August, calm heads will be needed when assessing the success of the launch.

“To a rocket company, success can mean firing all engines for a certain time or lift-off for a certain period. So much is learnt even if they are not 100 percent successful. I think there is still a cynicism from the older generation that thinks this is just spin. But it isn’t. This is the way new rocket companies operate,” she says.

The day of that first launch is fast approaching as Strang and her team get ready for the moment they have worked years for.

“I cannot imagine what is going to be like to be stood there waiting for the countdown. I can’t imagine it,” Strang says. “It will be incredibly exciting for the whole of the U.K. If something does knock us off the top spot of BBC News you would imagine it would have to be a fairly spectacular or horrific world event to knock us off the top spot.”

A 'Perfect Environment'

German startup Rocket Factory Augsburg (RFA) will be the first rocket launch company to attempt a vertical orbital launch from the U.K. No pressure!

Jörn Spurmann, CCO and co-founder of RFA believes the U.K. is a perfect environment for RFA to launch. He says that the spaceport is in a good location, and the U.K. environment has all the jigsaw pieces put together.

“I think the facts speak for themselves. The U.K. has attracted all of these companies and has made it possible for this environment to flourish. There are many good signs,” Spurmann says. “SaxaVord is not a state-owned entity like other spaceports in other countries. This was a major driver to actually launch from the U.K. That environment is good. The support we got from the U.K. is good. SaxaVord is also getting money from the U.K. government, so this is all very positive,” he says.

In May, RFA kicked off the hot fire campaign for its first stage at SaxaVord. The company hot-fired a total of four Helix engines, igniting one by one at four second intervals. The company reported that the test was flawless, with all engines running simultaneously for 8 seconds with a total hot-fire duration of 20 seconds.

Spurmann sets expectations for the first launch.

“It is a test flight, so we are not expecting to achieve 100 percent mission goals. But to see it ignite and lift off. The minimum goal is to get away from the launch pad and keep the infrastructure in one piece. We like to compare it to the Olympics and running for a gold medal in the marathon. You can see the finish line. Everyone is super highly motivated in the company to get this done and achieve it,” he says.

For a small satellite launch provider, Spurmann admits the market is “very hard” as money is now more expensive and expectations have increased.

“Everyone understands from the investment side that building launch vehicles has an increased risk profile using much less money for the programs, which means the test flights have a much higher risk profile. They might not be a full success. If you look at the data, less than half are a success on the first flight. Typically, most have a successful flight in the first two launches. The expectation is clear. I also believe the U.K. does not see it any different. This is why the CAA has set up a rigorous process of awarding the launch operator license. There is a lot of scrutiny. They are doing a good job to protect the safety of people around that,” he says.

Orbex Eyes Progress

Another company to keep an eye on over the next few years is Orbex, a U.K.-based private orbital launch services company, It is developing what it claims is one of the most advanced, low carbon, high performance micro-launch vehicles in the world.

Phil Chambers, CEO of Orbex, says there has been a “shift in momentum” as Orbex nears its first vertical launches. While Chambers did not reveal when Orbex expects to do its first launch, Orbex Prime is now in the latter stage of development and testing.

Orbex will be launching its Prime rocket from the Sutherland spaceport in Scotland, located on the A’Mhoine peninsula on the North coast of Scotland. Sutherland is a carbon neutral spaceport where sustainability is a key part of the requirements.

“We are really focused on building the greenest launcher, that is why we chose bio-propane as a fuel,” he says. “That is why we have built reusability into Prime.”

Chambers emphasizes the sovereign angle: “For the first time, the U.K. will have a sovereign, U.K.-owned, U.K. built, U.K. designed launch solution that will launch U.K. satellites from U.K. soil. That will give us freedom of action in space for the first time.”

For companies like Orbex to be successful, Chambers believes more government support will be needed. This doesn’t necessarily mean in the form of grants, but could come in the form of purchasing launches.

“There was an announcement in France recently to commit 400 million euros to support small launchers from the French government. The German government has made equally north of 100 million euros announcements. The Spanish government has supported their flagship program with 45 million euros,” Chambers says. “While Orbex is pleased with the amount of state support regarding the research and development phase, as you move into this next phase, which is where launch vehicles are unproven and still need to launch and get over that hump, I think the U.K. government could step up and support that, so we end up with a successful launch ecosystem in the U.K.”

He cites the example of what happened in the U.S. as a model the U.K. government could follow, pointing to the amount of DoD, NASA, and U.S. government support that SpaceX has received.

“We are not talking about grants — but supporting by buying launches, contracts. Supporting the sovereign launch capability is very important to develop the ecosystem so it can become a self-sustaining economically productive industry in the U.K.,” he adds.

The failure of Virgin Orbit last year means all eyes will be on the likes of Orbex to see if they can succeed where others have failed.

“Has it heightened pressure? I think it has illustrated the inherent risks with space launch to maybe people in the public domain that hadn’t taken them onboard,” Chambers says. “Now everyone is aware that these things don’t always go to plan, and that is normal with first launches. The next five years are going to be extremely interesting and I think transformational for the industry. It is great to be part of it.”

How Many Launches?

With the new era slowly dawning in the U.K., and a vertical launch attempt a matter of weeks away, how could the industry progress? Via Satellite asked the interviewees in this story how many launches they think will take place between now and the end of 2025, and how many will be successful?

“I think you will have five launches of orbital rockets and possibly two suborbital. So, seven launches. If I take a standard law of first launches, that will get you to four successful launches,” Archer says.

“I would hope we would have five successful launches in Shetland by the end of 2025,” says Strang.

“I think by the end of 2025, a handful of successful launches is not unrealistic,” says Spurmann. “We will definitely do our first test flight this year. Ideally, we would like to do more than that, and then there is a ramp-up next year.”

Chambers targets between two to five successful orbital vertical launches. “You can just look at the history of first launches. A number of launches taking place in 2025 will be the first launches of those vehicles,” he says. “It would be remiss to imagine that they all would be successful. So, I think we will definitely see more than zero but less than five successful launches.” VS